The West Created this Mess with Sykes-Picot, It’s Time to Fix IT

Introduction

It is time to admit that the Middle East is on course for a regional war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, in which there will be no winners, just losers, and millions of dead people. Neither the proxy militias of the current insurgencies nor their state sponsored parents are strong enough to inflict the decisive blow on the other, but only to ensure never ending sectarian bloodletting between Sunni and Shia. It is also time to acknowledge that the Western solution for the Middle East ultimately amounts to the placing of a square pin into a round hole, because its proposed end-state is the creation of something like itself, a secular civil society within a liberal democracy. Thus, the West’s solution lies inherently in Arabs giving up what makes them Arab, their religion, Islam, and their traditional ethic/tribal/family affinities. The underlying problem is relatively simple to diagnose: The natural resources in the region are finite and depleting (oil, natural gas and water), the wealth derived from which, is mostly in the hands of the few, who use it to control the many, to the benefit of the elite. Many of the disenfranchised are young (under 30), and as such, face a bleak future, making them ripe for Islamic radicalization. Bottom line, the current state of affairs cannot go on much longer without dire consequences for everyone.

A Conceptual Framework:

1. The Middle East map would be redrawn along religious and ethnic /tribal/family lines (similar to India and Pakistan). This would reduce significantly the level of sectarian violence, because the Sunni population would predominately live in the Sunni confederation, and the Shia population would predominately live in the Shia confederation. Those that are currently refugees, based on their religious affiliation, would be re-settled in either the Sunni or Shia confederation.
2. The Sunni confederation would be led by Saudi Arabia, and the Shia confederation by Iran. Consequently, the underlying rational for regional competition and conflict would be removed, i.e. protecting or revenging their respective religious sect, because by and large their religious brethren would be housed under the same roof as them.
3. The USA and Russia would act as guarantors of the territorial integrity of their respective confederation: USA, the Sunni confederation, and Russia, the Shia confederation. This responsibility would include providing a nuclear umbrella for its respective confederation. Therefore, neither confederation would have any nuclear military capability. To the extent that either confederation had a civilian nuclear program, it would be supervised by its respective guarantor.
4. The USA and Russia would also be the guarantor of freedom of expression for all religious minorities in their respective confederation, e.g. Christians, Yazidis, Zoroastrians, Sufis, Jews etc. This would include the creation of safe zones, in which these faith/ethnic groups may freely live and practice their beliefs.
5. Religious holy sites would be administered by the recognized religious authority for the said holy site. Notwithstanding, holy site authorities are to afford safe access to all who may wish to worship at them. Such places will be centers of devotion, rather than sources of sectarian strife.
6. Jerusalem and the West Bank would become neutral territory, much like Berlin during the Cold War. It would be administered by third parties: The Christian sector by Russia, the Jewish sector by the USA, and the Muslim sector by China. The third-parties will guarantee the security of all believers and residents to their respective sector.
7. Any political disputes between the confederations would be resolved through the UN and any economic disputes by the OECD.
8. Each confederation is to be an economic union, similar to that in Europe. Accordingly, it will have a single internal market, single currency and unified tax regime. The resulting free trade and economies of scale will enable each confederation to leverage fully its economic resources and effectively compete globally. In order to ensure its long term prosperity, each confederation will need to develop and adopt alternative energy solutions, a technology based education system, as well as comprehensive desalination and urbanization programs, for all of its citizens. The IMF and World Bank will assist each confederation in developing economic growth programs to ensure long term prosperity for all of its citizens.
9. Regional natural resources would be allocated to each confederation on a rational and equitable basis. Particular attention would be given to ensuring sustainable energy, water and food security for each confederation.
10. Each confederation must provide tangible social and economic opportunity and fairness for all of its citizens. The achievement of this goal is critical to defeating terrorism, as it would take away one of the terrorists major justifications for violence, that of social justice.
11. In order to spur growth, the cities of Abu Dhabi, Aleppo, Amman, Doha, Dubai, Kirkuk, Kuwait City, Manama, Mosul, Riyadh and Jeddah, as well as Baghdad, Basra, Beirut, Damascus, Esfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz and Tehran, would be designated free trade zones, financial services and technology centers. Western, Asian and BRICS economies would partner with these cities to help jump start/speed-up their development.
12. Each confederation would adopt a constitution ratified via a national referendum. It would be the ultimate source of authority for the confederation.Sharia law would form the legal basis of each confederation with exceptions, where applicable, within the religious safe zones.
13. There would be a federal constitution like that found in the USA, by which certain powers would be devolved to areas/zones defined in terms of religious adherence, ethnicity or tribal/family affiliation, e.g. provision of transportation, education, policing and sanitation. Foreign affairs, security and defense, would be the exclusive prerogative of the federal administration.
14. The separation of powers between political and religious institutions, as well as the determination of the controlling authority between them, would be defined in the confederation’s constitution. The constitution would explicitly prohibit persecution of any religious minorities and guarantee the freedom of religious expression for all citizens of the confederation. Where a Confederation citizen’s individual minority religious rights are violated, he or she may appeal to the Court of Human Rights to enforce their individual religious rights. The decision of the Court of Human Rights shall be binding.
15. Upon creation of a confederation, all irregular forces within its territory, e.g. militias and terrorists, will be given a reasonable period of time to lay down their arms and enter civil society or be integrated into the confederation’s armed forces. There is to be no equivalent of the “de-baathification policy.” That being said, such individuals will have to swear allegiance to their respective confederation and its constitution, and be the subject of all applicable law.
16. Those individuals indicted for committing war crimes will be the subject of the international war crimes tribunal.
17. Those internationally agreed upon by the stakeholders (to the Middle East solution) as being designated members of irregular forces who refuse to lay down their arms and continue fighting will be the subject of total war by the whole international community until they no longer pose a security threat. Such persons who refuse to lay down their arms shall be stripped of their citizenships and all rights inuring thereto.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Author: John Wood